🔗 Share this article

Shutdowns have become a recurring element of US politics – but the current situation appears particularly intractable because of political dynamics and deep-seated animosity among both major parties.

Some government services face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 people likely to be placed on furlough without pay since both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.

Votes aimed at ending the deadlock continue to fall short, with little visibility on a clear resolution path in this instance as each side – including the President – perceive advantages in digging in.

These are several key factors in which things feel different currently.

First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare

The Democratic base has been demanding for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Well now the party leadership have an opportunity to demonstrate they have listened.

In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a government closure in the spring. Now he's digging in.

This presents an opportunity for Democrats to show their ability to reclaim some control from an administration that has moved aggressively on its agenda.

Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers that the wider public will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.

Democratic representatives are leveraging the budget standoff to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support together with GOP-backed federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.

They are also trying to restrict the President's use of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and other programmes.

Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity

The President along with a senior aide have made little secret of the fact that they smell a chance to advance further reductions in government employment that have featured the current presidential term to date.

The President himself said last week that the shutdown provided him with a "unique chance", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".

The White House stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson described this as "budgetary responsibility".

The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, though administration officials have been consulting with federal budget authorities, or OMB, which is headed by the administration's budget director.

The administration's financial chief has already announced the halting of government financial support for regions governed by of the country, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.

3. There's little trust on either side

Whereas past government closures have been characterised by extended negotiations among political opponents in an effort to get government services running again, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness of collaboration this time.

Conversely, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, as both sides blaming each other for causing the impasse.

House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members of not being serious toward resolution, and holding out over a deal "to get political cover".

Simultaneously, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, stating how a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.

The administration leader personally has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the legislator appears wearing traditional headwear and a moustache.

The affected legislator with party colleagues called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.

Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability

Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough as a result of the government closure.

That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.

A shutdown also injects new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and technological advancements.

Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.

But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity following resolution, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.

This might explain partially why financial markets have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.

Conversely, experts indicate that if the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, economic harm might become more long-lasting.